Three things, mostly: I play defensive midfield on weekends, I read more than is strictly useful, and on weekdays I manage a PMS strategy and help people make sense of their money. All three are the same skill — hold your position, watch everything, and don't do the exciting thing just because it's exciting.
where I sit
after hours
old texts
// four doorspick one
01
What's It Actually Worth?
One company, one number, and the reasoning that got me there.
open →
02
Things I've Dug Into
Sectors, themes, frameworks, and the odd rabbit hole.
open →
03
History, With Opinions
What happened, and what I think it actually did to us.
open →
04
Life, Unindexed
Football, controllers, manga, and a suspicious amount of anime.
open →
// most recent
Say hello, it's free
kunwarraghavendra001@gmail.com · linkedin · twitter
What's It
Actually Worth?
One company at a time. A number at the end, and every assumption that produced it laid out so you can disagree with me properly.
Nothing matches that
try a company name, a sector, or fewer words
Energy
+20.9%
Reliance Industries
Three good businesses, one cyclical one, and a holding structure the market has stopped paying for
Not a bet on any one segment being mispriced — a bet that the conglomerate wrapper dissolves. Jio’s DRHP is filed. That’s the catalyst.
₹1,307price
₹1,580my fair value
Healthcare
+15.5%
IKS Health
The chore-taker becomes the system of record
The TruBridge deal doubles revenue and buys the EHR its AI agents will live inside. It also takes net cash to 2.8x EBITDA. Both things are true.
₹1,887price
₹2,180my fair value
Financials
+11.0%
Axis Bank
The cheapest of the big four — and priced for a margin recovery it hasn’t delivered
The discount is largely earned, not anomalous. The return comes from book compounding at ~14.5%, not a re-rating. I size the position accordingly.
₹1,225price
₹1,360my fair value
Industrials
+0.6%
Unimech Aerospace
A genuinely good business, in a genuinely good sector, at a price that already assumes the ending
One of the more durable moats in Indian small-cap manufacturing. At 95x trailing, what it doesn’t have is a margin of safety.
₹1,183price
₹1,190my fair value
Healthcare
−1.2%
Concord Biotech
A genuine moat, priced as though the moat were also a growth engine
I admire this business and the verdict is one I don’t enjoy giving. 50x trailing for an end-market growing mid-single digits. My DCF says ₹552.
₹1,255price
₹1,240my fair value
Diversified
−7.0%
Adani Enterprises
The incubator has done the hard part. The price now assumes the harvest
Six platforms built, six released. FY26 was the crossover year. My caution is about price, not quality — I’d buy the franchise below ₹2,600.
₹3,010price
₹2,800my fair value
Consumer
−12.2%
Urban Company
A great franchise at a price that already knows it
I rate the business highly. I do not rate the share price highly. The equity is underwriting a ₹470 Cr-a-year InstaHelp bet it isn’t paid to take.
₹131price
₹115my fair value
Healthcare
−17.6%
Divi’s Laboratories
A vertical moat, fully priced
Divi’s owns the value-chain steps its competitors import — real and widening. At 81x trailing with FCF under ₹250 Cr for three years, it’s in the price. Add below ₹6,500.
₹7,885price
₹6,500my fair value
Consumer
−24.5%
ixigo
An excellent business at a price that requires heroic assumptions
India’s clear leader in rail travel, ₹18,693 Cr of gross bookings. The business is not the problem; the multiple is.
₹192price
₹145my fair value
Things I've
Dug Into
Not about one company. Sectors, frameworks, screens, and the occasional question I couldn't put down until I'd written it out.
Nothing matches that
try a company name, a sector, or fewer words
01
Examine the people who want power
India runs the hardest entrance exam on earth for the officer who
administers a district, and no exam at all for the minister that district reports into. A full
proposal — syllabi ministry by ministry, weightings, a cost model, a transition plan, and
the strongest case against my own idea.
02
Coat-tailing a fund I don't work for
Mapped every PPFAS holding against my own screens to see where a good investor and a good process disagree. They disagree more than you'd think.
03
What a supply shock is actually worth
Everyone repriced oil in a week. I wanted to know which part of that was information and which was weather.
04
The screen that keeps catching liars
Beneish M-Score, applied to 200 Indian mid-caps, and the four it flagged that nobody was talking about.
05
Owning gold without a story
Long-term bullish, badly argued by most people. Here's the version that survives contact with a spreadsheet.
06
Reading a moat without adjectives
Every moat framework I could find, reduced to things you can actually count.
History,
With Opinions
Things that happened, and what I think they actually did to us. The opinions are the point — you can get the dates anywhere.
1985World
Plaza Accord
Five governments agreed to talk the dollar down — and it worked, falling ~40% against the yen in two years. The lesson wasn’t about currencies. It was that coordinated intervention can move a market further than fundamentals suggest, for longer than you can stay solvent.
1987World
Black Monday
The Dow lost 22.6% in a single session with no news event to explain it. Portfolio insurance was supposed to limit losses and instead manufactured the selling. Every risk model since has had to answer for that day, and most still can’t.
1991India
The pledge, and the opening
India had three weeks of import cover and flew 47 tonnes of gold to the Bank of England as collateral. Liberalisation followed in July. The reforms that stuck were the ones nobody had time to argue about — a crisis is the only window when an entrenched system agrees to change.
1992India
Harshad Mehta
The Sensex peaked in April 1992 and the scam unravelled weeks later. The mechanism was mundane: bank receipts recycled as collateral. Fraud in Indian markets has almost never been exotic; it has been ordinary plumbing, used at a scale nobody was checking.
1997World
The Asian crisis
Thailand broke its dollar peg and contagion took Indonesia, Korea and Malaysia within months. Currency mismatch was the common thread — borrow in dollars, earn in local. India was largely spared because it hadn’t opened the capital account. Being late was, that once, protective.
1998India
Pokhran and sanctions
Nuclear tests brought US sanctions and a downgrade. Markets fell, then recovered faster than anyone expected. Geopolitical shocks price in quickly when they don’t change cash flows — the market’s memory for sanctions is far shorter than the diplomacy suggests.
2000World
The dot-com unwind
The Nasdaq lost ~78% peak to trough. India’s own IT names went with it, then Ketan Parekh’s K-10 basket collapsed in 2001. Two bubbles, one structure: a narrative that made valuation feel like a failure of imagination.
2001World
September 11
Markets closed for four days and reopened sharply lower. The durable consequence wasn’t the sell-off, it was the rate-cutting cycle that followed — cheap money for years, and a housing market that took full advantage.
2004India
The election nobody priced
The NDA was expected to win. It didn’t. On 17 May 2004 the Sensex fell ~11% and trading halted twice. The most expensive risks are the ones where consensus is so complete that nobody bothers hedging.
2008World
Lehman
The crisis is told as a housing story. It was a funding story — institutions financing 30-year assets with 30-day money. India’s banks survived on luck as much as prudence, and the regulation that followed is a large part of why 2020 went better.
2009India
Satyam
A promoter confessed to fabricating ₹7,000 Cr of cash that never existed. Auditors signed it for years. This is why I run a Beneish screen before I run a DCF — the second is worthless if the first is lying.
2013World
The taper tantrum
Bernanke suggested the Fed might buy fewer bonds. The rupee fell to 68.8 and India was named a Fragile Five economy. A change in the second derivative of policy repriced an entire asset class — markets trade the direction of change, not the level.
2014India
A mandate, and cheap oil
A decisive election result coincided with crude collapsing from $110 to under $30. The reform narrative got the credit; the terms-of-trade windfall did much of the work. Worth remembering when attributing performance to policy.
2016India
Demonetisation
86% of currency by value was voided overnight. The stated goals mostly failed. The unstated one — pushing household savings into financial assets — worked almost too well, and every asset manager in India is still living off the SIP flows that followed.
2016World
Brexit
A vote that no serious model gave better than a third of a chance. Sterling had its worst day in modern history. The recovery took months, not years — the second lesson in a decade that political shocks decay faster than economic ones.
2017India
GST
One tax replaced seventeen. The transition was messy, working capital tightened, and the unorganised sector took the brunt. The lasting market effect was formalisation — a decade of quiet share transfer to listed players that’s still running.
2018India
IL&FS
An infrastructure lender nobody thought of as systemic defaulted, and the NBFC funding market froze behind it. Liquidity risk is not credit risk, and the two are usually confused until the week they aren’t.
2020World
March 2020
Nifty fell ~38% in about a month, and diversification stopped working for roughly six weeks. Every backtest you will ever read quietly assumes correlations hold. They hold until the moment holding them matters.
2021India
The retail arrival
Demat accounts more than doubled and SIP flows became the market’s ballast. Domestic money structurally changed who sets the price in Indian equities — FII selling no longer does what it did in 2008.
2022World
Ukraine, and the end of free money
War, an energy shock, and the fastest Fed tightening in forty years. Duration was repriced across every asset at once — the clearest reminder in my investing lifetime that the discount rate is not a background assumption.
2023India
Hindenburg
A short-seller’s report erased over $100bn of group market value in weeks. Concentration risk hid inside an index — passive holders owned a governance question they had never underwritten.
2023World
Silicon Valley Bank
A bank failed because it held government bonds — the safest asset, at the wrong duration, funded by depositors who could all leave on the same afternoon. “Risk-free” describes credit, never price.
2024India
4 June 2024
Exit polls said one thing. The count said another. The Nifty fell ~6% intraday and recovered within days. Twenty years after 2004, the same lesson, at the same price: consensus is not a hedge.
2026World
Hormuz
A supply shock that repriced everything, and then mostly didn’t happen. I initiated ONGC and Oil India as a hedge and wrote it up at the time. What it cost to be wrong was far smaller than what it would have cost to be unhedged.
Life,
Unindexed
The parts that don't compound, don't scale, and aren't going in a quarterly review.
Defensive midfield
weekends · the position nobody thanks you for
Sit deep, read the whole pitch, make the boring pass. It's
the same instinct that makes me a patient investor and a slightly annoying teammate.
~2 lakh
minutes of anime watched
I've made peace with this number. Mostly.
PS5, PC, phone
currently: cozy town-builders
Coral Island, Sandrock, Palia. I value companies all
week and then go run a fictional farm. Make of that what you will.
Badminton
and the occasional run
Old texts, read slowly
jyotiṣa · dinacaryā · smṛti
Same habit as the day job, different library:
go to the source, distrust the summary, take your time.
Say hello,
it's free
best reached by email
kunwarraghavendra001@gmail.com